Canada Has Already Warmed 2°C. What Happens Next?

More than 26 million Canadians have already faced extreme heat, unsafe air, wildfire, flooding, or drought this year. That’s a number, and it’s also millions of stories. 

Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026 found that Canada has already warmed by 2°C over the past 75 years. The impacts of that warming are already showing up in our communities, and that number is expected to keep going up.

At the same time, a new UN report called Limiting overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return says the world will likely pass 1.5°C of warming within the next few years. For many, it’s official confirmation of what we’ve already expected.

There’s a lot to take in. So here are three things we want you to know before we dig in:

• Canada will face more dangerous heat, longer fire seasons, and more drought and flooding. Some more heating over the next couple of decades is now baked in. That means we need to prepare for more changes in the places we live.
• The world will likely pass 1.5°C of warming within the next few years. That matters because the climate impacts get worse as the world gets hotter. At the Paris Agreement, we agreed to limit warming to 1.5°C because it is a dangerous threshold for more extreme weather. But 1.5°C is not a line between “safe” and “too late.”
• What we do now can protect the people and places we love, and build a world that is better in many ways. Every bit of warming we prevent means fewer people put at risk. And the choices we make now can help us build stronger, safer communities for the future.

What this means for Canada

Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026 says that Canada has already warmed by 2°C over the past 75 years. Since 1970, we’ve been warming nearly twice as fast as the global average, while the Canadian Arctic has been warming three times as fast.

The report also says Canada’s average temperature is expected to rise by about another 1°C over the next couple of decades. That means a lot more extremes.

With that level of warming we can expect more dangerous heat, longer fire seasons, and more drought and flash flooding. 

In southern Canada, there could also be less freshwater available in the summer as snow melts earlier and glaciers shrink. And in some coastal areas, rising seas will bring a greater risk of flooding and damage to homes and communities.

But what the report makes very clear is that how much hotter Canada gets – and for how long – depends on how quickly the world cuts climate pollution.

We really are all in this together. What happens around the world affects us here in Canada. And what we do in Canada affects people around the world.

So what does 1.5°C actually mean?

For years, countries around the world have been trying to keep warming below 1.5°C. That means keeping the Earth’s average temperature from rising more than 1.5°C above what it was before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels.

That may sound like a small change. But even a small change in temperature can make a big difference. Think about ice. Around 0°C, a change of just one degree can take you from freezing to melting.

And 1.5°C is an average across the whole planet. As the world gets hotter, extreme weather gets worse, putting our homes, health, food, and water at greater risk, along with the animals and natural places we love.

The UN report says the world is now likely to pass 1.5°C of global warming within the next few years. And temperatures are expected to keep rising after we cross that mark. Even on the best path laid out in the report, warming reaches about 1.8°C before it peaks.

It describes this path as “overshoot, peak, and decline.” That means spending as little time over 1.5°C as possible, while working to bring temperatures back down.

This news may bring up a lot of feelings like anxiety, sadness, and even grief. We don’t want to rush past those feelings or try to put a hopeful spin on what these reports tell us. 

Sometimes we think of 1.5°C as a line in a graph with “safe” on one side and “too late” on the other. But climate change is not all or nothing.

How much hotter the world gets, how long we stay above 1.5°C, and how much harm is done still depend on what we do now. 

Every fraction of a degree of warming we prevent can mean fewer people exposed to dangerous heat, less severe wildfire weather, fewer storms, hurricanes, and flooding, and fewer homes and communities put at risk.

We are still choosing between very different futures

What we do now can limit the harm and help build a safer future.

First, we need to prepare for the changes already here. Growing more food close to home can help when shipments are disrupted. Clean power can give us more affordable, reliable energy here at home. And preparing for heat, wildfire smoke, storms, and power outages can help us keep each other safe. 

At the same time, we need to move away from the fossil fuels driving climate change and putting our communities at risk.

People in your My Climate Plan community are already doing this work across Canada.

Through our MPACT program, members are meeting with MPs in 49 communities from coast to coast. Thank you to everyone who has stepped up!

If you haven’t signed up yet, we invite you to join them. MPACT gives you the tools and personalized support to speak with your MP about one or both of our campaigns. 

Electrify Canada’s Energy Security is calling for an east-west electricity grid to share clean power across the country. Don’t Let Canada Burn is calling for more support for the wildland firefighters keeping our communities safe.

You don’t need to be an expert to take part. We’ll support you every step of the way.

We’re so grateful to everyone in this community who is helping to protect the people and places we love. Thank you for being part of this work.

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